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=ECON 520 - Global MacroEcon= = Team Project -- HK Property Market = [UPDATE : Lunchtime discussion Saturday, 10 Oct] ** Adjusted Topic: How Macro-Economics Affect HK Property Price Movements?

__Paper :__ Kim – GDP Clarence – Int. Rate + Exch Rate + M2 Janice – Unemploment + Demographic + HSI Winifred – Govt Policy (Land Supply) + Wrap Up

__Presentation :__ //Intro// – 1 min //GDP// – 4 min //Int. Rates// – 4 min //Other// – 4 min //Summary/Conclusion// – 2 min

Jimmy – Iris – Int. Rates Roy –

Topic: Factors affecting the Movement of HK Property Price (1995-2009)
 * [END UPDATE : Lunchtime discussion Saturday, 10 Oct] **

Storyline: Real Econ Drop => but HK PM Up ==> Why ? Bubble? Reasonable ? Abnormal ? Past History Reference ?

Possible Reasons: -- Mainland Buyers ? overall % 10-20%??? -- HK Immigration Policy favor China Investors -- HK Saving is high compared w/ previous Crisis ? -- Interest Rate is relatively low (Mortgage Rate=2.75%, historical low) -- No better alternative investment (vs. stocks/bonds/FX/Gold)

** Area to Study ** -- All kinds of HK property (Commercial Office/ Commercial Retail / Private Housing / Public Housing)? Or just study HK Private Housing Property Market ?
 * Time Period to Study** -- 1999 to 2009 ? or wider ?
 * Objective or Subject Title** of this Team project ?

Discussion Time: 1st Discussion: 07 Oct 2009 (Wed) 7:00p.m. Venue: 15/F, HK Club, Central. 2nd Discussion: 10 Oct 2009 (Sat) 12:30p.m. Venue: HKUST Campus

__**Related Concepts**__ 1) HK Real GDP (Kim + Winifred)
 * GDP=C+I+G
 * Disposable Income
 * HK Inflation Rate
 * HK Consumer Price Index

2) HK Interest Rate = HK Mortgage Rate (Roy)

3) HK GDP - Capital & Financial Account -- Other Investment -- Assets (Clarence) US/ RMB Exchange Rate ? HK Money Supply / Hot-Money

4) Unemployment Rate (Janice)

5) Demographic Factors (Janice)
 * Population / Birth Rate and Marriage Rate
 * Immigration Rate / Policy

6) Gov't Land Supply (Government Policy) (Jimmy)

7) External Factors (Iris) Wealth Effect Hang Seng Index / Shanghai A-share Index / DowJones Index etc.

1997 HK Handover 1998 SE Asia Financial Crisis 2000 Dot Com Bubble 2003 SARS 2008 Global Financial Tsunami
 * Major Economic Events:**

__**Raw Data / URL**__ 差 餉 物 業 估 價 署 -- [|香 港 物 業 報 告 2008] > [|物業市場統計資料] [|香港統計資料] > [|主要經濟及社會統計指標]


 * From Midland Property**

[|中原领先指数] [|中原測量師行 Centaline Surveyors Limited] [|Hong Kong Property Market Report] 2009年第二季
 * From Centaline Property**

 [|樓市分析] (click this URL to get below excel)
 * ||  ||   || [[image:http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet?attachImage=true&contentType=application/vnd.ms-excel&attachment=16806 link="@http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet/download/174-1451-16806/rent.xls"]] ||   ||   ||   || [[image:http://hk.centanet.com/icms/Image/centanet/arrow_left.gif width="15" height="18" align="absBottom" link="http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet/download/174-1451-16806/rent.xls"]][| 表1:二手私人住宅平均租金走勢] ||   ||   ||   ||   ||   ||   ||   || [[image:http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet?attachImage=true&contentType=application/vnd.ms-excel&attachment=17053 caption="二手私人住宅平均租金走勢" link="@http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet/download/174-1451-17053/summary.xls"]] ||   ||   ||   || [[image:http://hk.centanet.com/icms/Image/centanet/arrow_left.gif width="15" height="18" align="absBottom" link="http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet/download/174-1451-17053/summary.xls"]][| 表2:土地註冊處/樓宇買賣登記數據] ||   ||   ||   ||   ||   ||   ||   || [[image:http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet?attachImage=true&contentType=application/vnd.ms-excel&attachment=17054 caption="土地註冊處/樓宇買賣登記數據" link="@http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet/download/174-1451-17054/confirmor.xls"]] ||   ||   ||   || [[image:http://hk.centanet.com/icms/Image/centanet/arrow_left.gif width="15" height="18" align="absBottom" link="http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet/download/174-1451-17054/confirmor.xls"]][| 表3:二手住宅確認人轉售個案比例] ||   ||   ||   ||   ||
 * ||  ||   || [[image:http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet?attachImage=true&contentType=application/vnd.ms-excel&attachment=17055 width="56" height="56" caption="二手住宅確認人轉售個案比例" link="@http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet/download/174-1451-17055/affordability.xls"]] ||   ||   ||   || [[image:http://hk.centanet.com/icms/Image/centanet/arrow_left.gif width="15" height="18" align="absBottom" link="http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet/download/174-1451-17055/affordability.xls"]][| 表4:供樓負擔比例] ||   ||   ||   ||   ||   ||   ||   || [[image:http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet?attachImage=true&contentType=application/vnd.ms-excel&attachment=17056 caption="供樓負擔比例" link="@http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet/download/174-1451-17056/top_est50.xls"]] ||   ||   ||   || [[image:http://hk.centanet.com/icms/Image/centanet/arrow_left.gif width="15" height="18" align="absBottom" link="http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet/download/174-1451-17056/top_est50.xls"]][| 表5:2009年8月-50大屋苑註冊數據] ||   ||   ||   ||   ||   ||   ||   || [[image:http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet?attachImage=true&contentType=application/vnd.ms-excel&attachment=17370 caption="2009年8月-50大屋苑註冊數據" link="@http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet/download/174-1451-17370/CCI&L.xls"]] ||   ||   ||   || [[image:http://hk.centanet.com/icms/Image/centanet/arrow_left.gif width="15" height="18" align="absBottom" link="http://hk.centanet.com/icms/ICMServlet/download/174-1451-17370/CCI&L.xls"]][| 表6:中原城市領先指數(CCL/CCI)] ||   ||   ||   ||   ||


 * From HKMA



**

//Long-term and Short-term Determinants of Property Prices in Hong Kong// Paper 2: Frank Leung, Kevin Chow and Gaofeng Han Discussant: Olaf Unteroberdoerster HKCU Literature
 * [[file:con_paper_0_553_Frank_leung_Review%20of%20propertymkt%20_revised%204_.pdf]]



From Financial Times**



= = =A few News Articles collected:= = = =CBRE Market Reports= [|CBRE Market Reports] = = =Mainland China Factors=

== =Info. Regarding GDP= HK house price to income ratio []

<-- This one looks like very difficult! =Hang Seng Market Analysis= =Welcome to Your New Wiki!=

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